Prediction
US and China will cap advanced chip exports at 2025 levels
By Q1 2027, Washington and Beijing will agree to hold advanced semiconductor exports to China at 202…
Predictions
What Happens Next
Bold, falsifiable calls on the next two years. One signal, one thesis, a date to judge us by.
Prediction
TSMC Arizona Fab 2 reaches 25,000 wafers a month by September 2027
The Arizona plant will produce 4nm and 3nm chips at a combined monthly rate of 25,000 wafers by Q3 2…
Prediction
On-device 7B models will ship in 40% of new Android phones by 2027
By 31 December 2027, more than 40% of new Android smartphones sold worldwide will run multimodal mod…
Prediction
Prime-age labor force participation falls below 81% by December 2027
The Census Bureau’s January 2028 release will show a prime-age civilian labor force participation ra…
Prediction
US Space Force will confirm 50 counter-space jamming satellites by 2027
The Space Force will publicly confirm that at least 50 counter-space jamming satellites are operatio…
Prediction
Fed cuts its policy rate to 2% or lower by June 2027
The Federal Reserve will lower its policy rate to 2.00% or below by June 2027. The cuts will be foll…
Prediction
FDA will fully approve a senolytic for an age-related indication by 2027
At least one senolytic compound will receive full FDA approval for an age-related disease by 31 Dece…
Prediction
First 300 MW floating offshore wind farm in US federal waters reaches commercial operation by March 2028
A 300 MW floating array in federal waters will reach commercial operation by Q1 2028, anchored by Ca…
Prediction
United States files Article 13 notice to leave NATO by March 2028
Congressional testimony and bilateral security deals in 2026 move withdrawal from contingency planni…
Prediction
Two G7 Central Banks to Link Policy Rates to Eldercare Labor Shortage Index by Q2 2027
The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are already quantifying unpaid family care as a meas…
Prediction
SpaceX Completes First Orbital Propellant Transfer and Uncrewed Lunar Landing by March 2027
A pair of Starship vehicles will dock in low Earth orbit and transfer hundreds of tons of liquid oxy…
Prediction
Mexico passes 28 percent of US auto parts imports by Q3 2027
Q2 2026 Census data shows Mexican auto parts imports at 24.7 percent share and growing 19 percent ye…
Prediction
Android devices run most AI inference on-device by Q4 2027
Qualcomm and MediaTek NPUs already clear the performance bar, and OEM pilots on Pixel and Galaxy dev…
Prediction
ECB to mandate full retail digital euro rollout by 30 June 2027
The ECB will mandate all euro-area banks to offer digital euro accounts to retail customers, trigger…
Prediction
EV Battery Pack Prices Fall Below $60/kWh by Q4 2027
Chinese cell makers are already bidding below $70/kWh. A wave of LFP oversupply and new sodium-ion c…
Prediction
FDA Approves Unity Biotechnology's UBX1325 for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis by Q2 2028
Unity Biotechnology's UBX1325, already showing clinical efficacy in ophthalmology, follows a regulat…
Prediction
US to Impose Secondary Sanctions on Three Major Chinese State-Owned Banks by Q1 2027
The Treasury and State Department will target Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultur…
Prediction
Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 Phones Run 13B-Parameter Models Locally, Passing 25 Percent On-Device Inference Share by Q4 2027
Qualcomm's 45 TOPS Hexagon NPU and on-device Stable Diffusion 3.5 demos on Gen 4 reference hardware …
Prediction
Three of the Five Largest US Tech Employers Will Mandate a Four-Day Office Week by End of 2027
The labor market advantage of remote flexibility has been neutralized by internal performance data. …
Prediction
TSMC Arizona Ships 10,000 Wafers Per Month of 4nm Chips by Q1 2027
Equipment move-in completed ahead of schedule and CHIPS Act funds are released. The physical constra…
Prediction
SpaceX Completes First Orbital Propellant Transfer Between Two Starships by June 2027
NASA's Human Landing System contract requires an orbital propellant transfer test before a crewed lu…
Prediction
First US 300 MW small modular reactor connects to grid by Q4 2027
An SMR-160 unit secures its combined license and reaches commercial operation before the end of 2027…
Prediction
ECB launches retail digital euro by March 2028
The ECB will move from wholesale pilots to a live retail digital euro across the euro area by Q1 202…
Prediction
Samsung and Xiaomi Ship 7B On-Device Multimodal Models on Flagship Phones by Q2 2027
Qualcomm and MediaTek silicon now sustains the necessary throughput. Google and Microsoft have the c…
Prediction
South Korea to Confirm US B61 Forward Deployment at Osan by Q1 2027
A new bilateral nuclear-sharing agreement will place American tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean…
Prediction
At Least Three US States Will Mandate 32-Hour Workweeks at Full Pay for AI-Augmented Roles by Q2 2027
California, New York, and Washington are poised to enact laws requiring employers with over 500 work…
Prediction
BYD Opens European Assembly Plant in Hungary, Reaches 150,000 Annual Output by Q3 2027
The Szeged facility moves from pilot-scale knockdown kits to full stamping, welding, and paint, trig…
Prediction
BOJ to Hike Policy Rate to 1.25% by Q4 2027, Yen Strengthens Below 125 per USD
Persistent inflation above 2% and shunto wage settlements exceeding 4% will force the BOJ to normali…
Prediction
SpaceX Demonstrates Orbital Starship Refueling and NASA Certifies Success by March 2027
A ship-to-ship propellant transfer in low Earth orbit, verified by NASA telemetry, will retire the s…
Prediction
NuScale VOYGR Plant at INL Connects to PJM Grid by September 2027
The NuScale VOYGR plant at the Idaho National Laboratory site receives its operating license in Q4 2…